AS POLITICAL revolts go, it was a modest one. On Tuesday
delegates at the Liberal Democrat conference in Glasgow voted down
an amendment to the party's environmental policy which would have
exempted Gatwick from its ban on airport expansion. Next year,
after the General Election, Sir Howard Davies's review chooses
between two possible expansion schemes at Heathrow and one at
Gatwick. The Lib-Dem leadership wanted to go into the election with
a pro-business flag that they could wave. Ordinary delegates
argued, however, that they would rather canvass for a party that
was clearly different from the others, bar the Greens. The policy
banning airport expansion stays.
This will have an impact on the airports' future, of course,
only if the Lib-Dems find themselves in another coalition. The
Conservatives have pledged to support whichever airport scheme the
Davies review comes up with. Labour has been opposed to a third
runway at Heathrow, but is now signalling a softer approach, as
indicated by the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, at last month's party
conference. Both the main parties, and many within the Liberal
Democrat leadership, wish to be seen as "pro-business" which,
interpreted, means pro-growth.
The airport industry has a huge PR budget, so it is hard to form
a clear view of either the business case or the environmental
impact of an expanded airport on the outskirts of London. The
purpose of expansion is to create a hub airport - which both
airports already are, to a degree - in which passengers connect
from one flight to another. The Heathrow website praises the
world's largest hub, the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport
in Atlanta, which, it says, "has a direct economic impact of more
than about $32.5 billion for the metro Atlanta area economy", a
difficult figure to verify.
The trouble with growth, unless is it accompanied by
environmental regulation and technical innovation, is that carbon
emissions grow proportionately. The car industry, for example,
contributes substantially to the UK's carbon emissions, but that
figure has remained relatively stable since 1990, despite an
increase in vehicles and mileage, thanks to engines that consume
less petrol and cleaner fuel. International airlines have not been
subjected to such intense lobbying; besides which, the technology
is more difficult. Air travel has been estimated to cause as much
as 15 per cent of the UK's greenhouse-gas emissions: an alarming
figure, given that most residents fly very rarely.
The argument is that a failure to expand would do nothing to
save the planet: other cities would simply enlarge their airports
and take the business that could have been ours. We have heard
similar arguments for other questionable industries, not least the
arms trade. In essence, this is to argue that wrongdoing is
justified because others would do it. And it is wrongdoing. Britain
will find it hard to honour its environmental promises unless there
is a technological breakthrough, or the public and the industry
show restraint.