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Covid not the only test for 2022

17 December 2021

The pandemic dominates headlines — but other problems are piling up in ministerial in-trays, says Mark D’Arcy

Alamy

Boris Johnson during a press conferece in Downing Street at the end of last month

HOW much longer can this go on? The latest phase of the pandemic, after nearly two years of health emergency, is testing the resilience of the voters, the UK’s political system, and, now, trust in the Government.

To be fair, any government in history would have struggled under the sheer weight of the crisis that descended on Boris Johnson’s administration in the opening weeks of 2020. But he must now deal with the latest developments while simultaneously battling the scandals and allegations swirling about him.

The polls show that his credibility is badly dented; so re-establishing his authority is an essential preliminary to pretty much any action he wants to take. Whether asking people to accept more sacrifice to beat Covid-19, or pushing through the other parts of his agenda, a leader needs to be believed, and trust is the magic ingredient that makes that possible. What do you call a politician with no followers? Just some guy taking a walk.

And his followers are jittery. The feeling of invincibility that the Conservatives enjoyed for much of 2020, when they floated effortlessly ahead of a becalmed Labour Party, has been dispelled by a run of unforced errors (the Paterson affair, Party-gate), and by a run of opinion polls putting Labour ahead. Tory MPs will also have noted a steady trickle of defeats in local elections. And they will understand that it’s about more than Party-gate and the rest. Voters are paying more for their energy, their petrol, and their groceries, and, above all, they are weary of the pandemic and the renewed disruption to normal life.

Poll ratings can be shrugged off for a while, as can huge swings in by-elections, but coming up next May is another set of local elections which, unless current trends are reversed, could provide the writing on the wall for Conservative MPs with narrow majorities.

If, poring over the results in their patch, those MPs decide that they are heading for defeat, they might seek salvation in a change in leadership. And you know that that is a real possibility when potential leaders strike poses and woo potential supporters, and when the newspapers start profiling runners and riders for the succession.


ALL this will be the backbeat to the politics of 2022, but there will be plenty of other themes as well. While the pandemic has dominated the headlines and monopolised ministerial headspace, plenty of other problems have been festering, and, in the coming year, the Government will be seeking to address them.

One is the very basic issue of tolerance and free speech. The killing of Sir David Amess, in October (News 22 October), led to a great deal of heart-searching about the nature of 21st-century politics, and the brutal online howlings-down and vilification that blight it. The Prime Minister promised action in the forthcoming Online Safety Bill (Comment, 15 October) — perhaps tougher requirements on service-providers to take down posts that advocate violence, and, if not, a ban on anonymous accounts, at least requiring a mechanism that would allow the police to trace those responsible for the nastiest offerings.

But, as the Archbishop of Canterbury pointed out in his annual Advent debate in the Lords last Friday, the country cannot be legislated into tolerance and civility, and the law can, at best, provide a backstop against reprisals aimed at people who have come under fire for their views. He pointed to the need for people to act and speak with greater care — but, by the time he held that debate, the brief semi-truce that had followed Sir David’s death had long evaporated, and normal brutality had resumed, both in the Commons and on social media.

Perhaps one thing that is needed is for the political system to demonstrate an ability to grapple with the issues that people really care about — the questions, great and small, that matter most to individuals and communities. How about tackling the Covid backlog in the NHS?

A recent report from the financial watchdog, the National Audit Office, found that waiting times for surgery and procedures were already growing before the pandemic began, which means real suffering for tens of thousands. Much now depends on success of the Government’s efforts to deal with the accumulated backlog. Ministers have already thrown billions of extra funding into the NHS, and created a new National Insurance levy to bring in more, but will inevitably face demands to spend, spend, and spend again.

The Commons Levelling Up Committee wants to save the high street by imposing a transaction tax on online traders, and using the revenue to bring down business rates, levelling the tax burden between traditional shops and the online giants such as Amazon. Will the Government take up that suggestion, or decide that it will not work and try to find another way to help, because some of the most threatened high streets are in some of the most politically contested parliamentary seats?


CAN ministers save sport? Sorting out the tangled problems besetting beloved clubs could bring a political and electoral reward for the Government.

In the past few years, MPs from all parties have found themselves embroiled in unwelcome changes in their local football clubs: hence the proposals from the former Sports Minister, Tracy Crouch, to boost fan power and create an independent football regulator, set up by act of Parliament.

These not only have important implications for a multi-billion-pound industry, but also address a bundle of cultural issues of deep concern to people who seldom engage with politics: most particularly, including the kind of swing voters the Conservatives have been wooing.

So, a new structure would rule on whether individuals were “fit and proper persons” to own a club, which immediately raises issues about a number of owners, not least the Saudi ownership of Newcastle United (Paul Vallely, 15 October). It would also aim to give fans a voice in “heritage” decisions about club colours, new grounds, and much, much more. That could be a significant vote-winner.

Those are just three examples of the kind of problems building up in ministerial in-trays. None of the possible solutions is cost-free, and some could draw the Government into a quagmire. But the way for governments to stay in office through hard times is to deliver for their voters — otherwise, the voters will turn to someone else.


THAT point is doubly important for one of the trickiest issues confronting the Government: its commitment to reducing Britain’s carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. Ministers have made a huge commitment to the transformation that net zero requires, but it carries its own dangers, precisely because it involves massive and expensive change: replacing gas boilers, installing hardware such as ground-source heat pumps, and switching to electric cars, as well as transforming industry.

Its supporters may wish the Government planned to move faster, although they back the overall approach — but a backlash is building, and many MPs are increasingly concerned about the costs and who will bear them.

If net zero means bigger heating bills for poor people, or that UK industry has to switch to more expensive technologies while its competitors do not, that backlash could soon be expressed in votes. But, on the other side of the argument, if the people who currently express their fears about the future of the planet by gluing themselves to motorway slip-roads conclude that the political process is incapable of delivering the kind of sweeping change needed to prevent global warming, what then?


Mark D’Arcy is a parliamentary correspondent for BBC News.

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