ORDINAND numbers have fallen by 38 per cent since 2020, the General Synod was told this week. Diocesan and course and college staff, when asked to name possible factors behind the decline, had referred to “local clergy well-being” first.
This autumn, an estimated 370 ordinands are expected to begin training. In 2020, the total stood at 591 — the highest number for 13 years (News, 2 July 2021). This followed a drive under the Renewal and Reform agenda to grow ordinand numbers by 50 per cent compared with the 2013 figure, from an average of 500 every year to 750 (News, 23 May 2016).
The goal was to secure a “stable pool” of 7600 full-time clergy, factoring in retirement projections (in 2015, it was reported that 40 per cent of clergy were due to retire within the decade). The Ministry Council has forecast that the Church needs 630 new ordained ministers a year to achieve the outcomes in the Vision and Strategy projections (News, 14 July 2023).
In a written response to a question, the Bishop of Chester, Dr Mark Tanner, who chairs the Ministry Council, reported that the National Vocations Team, together with the lead bishop for renewing ministerial vocations, the Bishop of Stockport, the Rt Revd Sam Corley, had held a series of six Renewing Ministerial Vocations Conversations in York, London, Cambridge, Bristol, Leicester, and Manchester.
More than 100 people had attended the conversations, representing 37 dioceses and 14 theological-education institutions (TEIs), with a range of delegates including directors of mission and ministry, leaders of lay ministries, diocesan directors of ordinands, principals, and tutors. More than 60 different factors had been identified, “which contribute to the current, complex vocational picture across the Church”.
All participants had been asked to identity the three most influential factors affecting vocations. Out of a total of 354 votes cast, the top factors identified were: local clergy well-being (71); demographic changes in society (28); lack of diocesan resources for vocations outreach work (24); institutional suspicion (23); LLF — substance and tone (21); and the clergy stipend/package (21).
Another clear theme, he said, was that, “whilst numbers of candidates for longer programmes for licensed and ordained ministries had reduced, many dioceses have found that shorter, more focused training and formational programmes for lay ministries were strongly supported, and, in some cases, oversubscribed.”
During a presentation on the Archbishops’ Council’s budget, the chair of the Finance Committee, Carl Hughes, told members that “all studies indicate significant mental-health issues and financial anxiety among clergy” (News, 22 February). Clergy stipends had not kept pace with inflation, especially since 2021 (News, 31 May). His “biggest concern” was “how attractive, from a financial point of view, the stipend is for ordinands once they are in full-time ministry.” Asked about posts for ordinands after formation, he said that the vacancy rate around the country indicated that this “isn’t currently an issue”.
Mr Hughes confirmed that a review of the financial condition of TEIs was also under way. Two-thirds of ordinands were at one third of the 22 TEIs. The Revd Professor Morwenna Ludlow (Exeter), raising concerns about how the value of TEIs was measured, urged the Archbishops’ Council to bear in mind that they were “places where important theological work is done, which enriches the mission of the Church more broadly”.
The Archdeacon of London, the Ven. Luke Miller, said that, after the “big drive” under Renewal and Reform, numbers of ordinands might reflect may a “falling off” from a peak.
Commenting on social media, the DDO in Leeds, Canon Derek Walmsley, observed: “We can’t really ask the missing candidates why they didn’t come forward. We can only speculate.”